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Characterizing features of outbreak duration for novel SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Washburne, A. D.; Hupert, N.; Kogan, N.; Hanage, W.; Santillana, M.

2022-01-14 epidemiology
10.1101/2022.01.14.22269288 medRxiv
Show abstract

Characterizing the dynamics of epidemic trajectories is critical to understanding the potential impacts of emerging outbreaks and to designing appropriate mitigation strategies. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, however, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern has complicated our ability to assess in real-time the potential effects of imminent outbreaks, such as those presently caused by the Omicron variant. Here, we report that SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across regions exhibit strain-specific times from onset to peak, specifically for Delta and Omicron variants. Our findings may facilitate real-time identification of peak medical demand and may help fine-tune ongoing and future outbreak mitigation deployment efforts.

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