Application of the Logistic Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa and the United States: Correlations and Predictions
Roberts, D. H.
Show abstract
We apply the logistic model to the four waves of COVID-19 taking place in South Africa over the period 3 January 2020 through 14 January 2022. We show that this model provides an excellent fit to the time history of three of the four waves. We then derive a theoretical correlation between the growth rate of each wave and its duration, and demonstrate that it is well obeyed by the South African data. We then turn to the data for the United States. As shown by Roberts (2020a, 2020b), the logistic model provides only a marginal fit to the early data. Here we break the data into six "waves," and treat each one separately. Five of the six can be analyzed, and we present full results. We then ask if these data provide a way to predict the length of the ongoing Omicron wave in the US (commonly called "wave 4," but the sixth wave as we have broken the data up). Comparison of these data to those from South Africa, and internal evaluation of the US data, suggest that this current wave will peak about 18 January 2022, and will be substantially over by about 11 February 2022. The total number of infected persons by the time that the Omicron wave is completely over is projected be between 22 and 24 million.
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