Modeling the USA Winter 2021 Resurgence

The current USA 2021 CoVID-19 Winter Resurgence is modeled here with the same function used for analyzing prior USA CoVID-19 waves: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 1]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(1)C_FD Here, N(t) gives the total number of CoVID-19 cases above the previous baseline, and tR sets the initial tdbl = tR (ln 2) pandemic tdbl doubling time. Larger S values indicate that uninfected people are improving their pandemic mitigation efforts, such as Social Distancing and vaccinations ; while{delta} 0 > 0 accelerates the post-peak [Formula] tail-off, and is empirically associated with mask-wearing. The pandemic wave end is when N(t) no longer increases. The USA Summer 2021 resurgence results from our prior medrxiv.org preprints* were used as a baseline. By 11/15/2021, an additional [Formula] cases above baseline were found, signaling the USA Winter 2021 resurgence. This CoVID-19 wave is still in its initial stages. Presently, our analysis indicates that this CoVID-19 wave can infect virtually all susceptible persons; just like the initial stage of the USA Summer 2021 resurgence. Data up through 12/30/2021 gives these paremeter values: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 2]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(2)C_FD These values are identical to the prior 2020 USA Winter Resurgence results. Also, the [Formula] and the [Formula] values are similar. However, while the Winter 2020 Resurgence showed a significant mask-wearing effect [Formula], this initial USA Winter 2021 Resurgence shows practically no mask-wearing effects [Formula]. If mask-wearing were to quickly rise to the Winter 2020 levels, it would give these projected totals: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 3]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(3)C_FD More robust mask-wearing and enhanced Social Distancing measures could further reduce these values (with 3 Figures).