Timing of Breakthrough Infection Risk After Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundProvision of safe and effective vaccines has been a remarkable public health achievement during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The effectiveness and durability of protection of the first two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is an important area for study, as are questions related to optimal dose combinations and dosing intervals. MethodsWe performed a case-cohort study to generate real-world evidence on efficacy of first and second dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, using a population-based case line list and vaccination database for the province of Ontario, Canada between December 2020 and October 2021. Risk of infection after vaccination was evaluated in all laboratory-confirmed vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 cases, and a 2% sample of vaccinated controls, evaluated using survival analytic methods, including construction of Cox proportional hazards models. Vaccination status was treated as a time-varying covariate. ResultsFirst and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine markedly reduced risk of infection (first dose efficacy 68%, 95% CI 67% to 69%; second dose efficacy 88%, 95% CI 87 to 88%). In multivariable models, extended dosing intervals were associated with lowest risk of breakthrough infection (HR for redosing 0.64 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.67) at 6-8 weeks). Heterologous vaccine schedules that mixed viral vector vaccine first doses with mRNA second doses were significantly more effective than mRNA only vaccines. Risk of infection largely vanished during the time period 4-6 months after the second vaccine dose, but rose markedly thereafter. InterpretationA case-cohort design provided an efficient means to identify strong protective effects associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, particularly after the second dose of vaccine. However, this effect appeared to wane once more than 6 months had elapsed since vaccination. Heterologous vaccination and extended dosing intervals improved the durability of immune response.