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Final sizes and durations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Poland and Germany predicted by generalized SIR model

Nesteruk, I.

2021-12-15 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.12.14.21267771 medRxiv
Show abstract

New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, which began in the autumn of 2021, are a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the possible maximum values of new cases, the risk of infection and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of new epidemic waves in Poland and Germany. Results of calculations show that new cases in these countries will not stop to appear in 2022.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.