Utilizing occupancy-detection models with museum specimen data: promise and pitfalls

Historical museum records provide potentially useful data for identifying drivers of change in species occupancy. However, because museum records are typically obtained via many collection methods, methodological developments are needed in order to enable robust inferences. Occupancy-detection models, a relatively new and powerful suite of methods, are a potentially promising avenue because they can account for changes in collection effort through space and time. Here we present a methodological road-map for using occupancy models to analyze historical museum records. We use simulated data-sets to identify how and when patterns in data and/or modelling decisions can bias inference. We focus primarily on the consequences of contrasting methodological approaches for dealing with species ranges and inferring species non-detections in both space and time. We find that not all data-sets are suitable for occupancy-detection analysis but, under the right conditions (namely, data-sets that span long durations and contain a high fraction of community-wide collections, or collection events that focus on communities of organisms), models can accurately estimate trends. Finally, we present a case-study on eastern North American odonates where we calculate long-term trends of occupancy by using our most robust workflow.