Constructing threat probability, fear behaviour, and aversive prediction error in the brainstem.

When faced with potential threat we must estimate its probability, respond advantageously, and leverage experience to update future estimates. Threat estimates are the proposed domain of the forebrain, while behaviour is elicited by the brainstem. Yet, the brainstem is also a source of prediction error, a learning signal to acquire and update threat estimates. Neuropixels probes allowed us to record single-unit activity across a 21-region brainstem axis during probabilistic fear discrimination with foot shock outcome. Against a backdrop of diffuse behaviour signaling, a brainstem network with a dorsal hub signaled threat probability. Neuronal function remapping during the outcome period gave rise to brainstem networks signaling prediction error and shock on multiple timescales. The results reveal construction of threat probability, behaviour, and prediction error along a single brainstem axis. One-Sentence SummaryThe brainstem constructs threat probability, behaviour, and prediction error from neuronal building blocks.