Updated Model for the USA Summer 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence

Over the course of the CoVID-19 pandemic, we utilized widely-available real-time data to create models for predicting its spread, and to estimate the time evolution for each of the USA CoVID-19 waves. Our recent medrxiv.org preprint (10.1101_2021.08.16.21262150) examined the USA Summer 2021 resurgence, from [~]6/7/2021 up through [~]8/15/2021 (Stage 1). Our preprint covering this period showed that CoVID-19 could infect virtually all susceptible non-vaccinated persons, who were practicing minimal Social Distancing and NO Mask-Wearing. The most recent USA Summer 2021 resurgence data, from [~]8/13/2021 up through 10/7/2021 (Stage 2), shows a significant "flattening of the curve". Since no new government mandates were involved, our interpretation is that some vaccine-hesitant people have now elected to become vaccinated. The Social Distancing parameter in our model showed a [~]6.67X increase between Stage 1 and Stage 2, indicating that this parameter also can serve as an indicator of vaccination rates. The other parameter in our model, which is associated with Mask-Wearing, increased from zero to a finite but relatively small value. Using the 10/7/2021 USA CoVID-19 overall mortality rate of [~]1.60942 % gives these updated predictions for the total number of USA CoVID-19 cases and deaths: NTOTAL(3/21/2022) {approx} 52, 188, 000 ; NDeaths(3/21/2022) {approx} 839, 900, NTOTAL(3/21/2024) {approx} [52, 787, 000 ; NDeaths(3/21/2024) {approx} 849, 600, assuming no new 2021 Winter Resurgence occurs (with 3 Figures).