Potential COVID-19 vaccination opportunities in primary care practices in the United States

Rapid, widespread COVID-19 vaccination is critical to pandemic mitigation and recovery. To help policymakers interested in further enhancing primary care delivery of COVID-19 vaccines, it is important to estimate the absolute number of vaccination opportunities, and identify how these opportunities may fall disproportionately among different communities given the unequal way that COVID-19 falls upon communities of color, low-income, and rural communities. To quantify the potential benefits of greater primary care engagement in vaccination efforts, we estimated the number of potential vaccination opportunities (PVOs) in primary care in the remaining calendar months of year 2021, and the possible uptake if we supplied enough vaccine to primary care practices to fulfill their opportunities. To estimate how many potential vaccination opportunities (PVOs) may occur in primary care, we used three sets of data, analyzing the latest available waves of the following: (i) the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS, 2016, N = 677 providers); (ii) the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, 2018, N = 29,839 individuals in 29,839 households); and (iii) the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS, 2018, N = 40,025 individuals in 14,500 households). Per the NAMCS data, which provide a nationally-representative sample of ambulatory care visits, primary care physicians normally provide 40.2 million primary care visits per month. The majority of the primary care utilization is absorbed by those aged 16 to 64 years old who are not otherwise priority groups (i.e., not having chronic diseases as defined by ACIP) but the second large group of visits are those with a chronic disease (27.2% of all visits). As compared to the NAMCS data providing an estimate of care from the perspective of providers, the overall sample in NHIS provides a view of primary care access and utilization from a population perspective. Per NHIS, 34% of the civilian US population saw a generalist physician in the prior calendar year, or 109.8 million people. Overall, we would estimate that over the latter half of calendar year 2021, approximately 15 million potential vaccine opportunities per month would be available through US primary care practices.