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Prediction of vaccine efficacy of the Delta variant

Chen, X.; Azman, A. S.; Lu, W.; Sun, R.; Zheng, N.; Ge, S.; Deng, X.; Yang, J.; Leung, D.; Yu, H.

2021-08-31 public and global health
10.1101/2021.08.26.21262699 medRxiv
Show abstract

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants have raised concerns over the protective efficacy of the current generation of vaccines, and it remains unclear to what extent, if any, different variants impact the efficacy and effectiveness of various SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. We systematically searched for studies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, as well as neutralization data for variants, and used a previously published statistical model to predict vaccine efficacy against variants. Overall, we estimate the efficacy of mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 against infection caused by the Delta variant to be 25-50% lower than that of prototype strains. The predicted efficacy against symptomatic illness of the mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are 95.1% (UI: 88.4-98.1%) and 80.8% (60.7-92.3%), respectively, which are higher than that of adenovirus-vector vaccines Ad26.COV2.S (44.8%, UI: 29.8-60.1%) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (41.1%, 19.8-62.8%). Taken together, these results suggest that the development of more effective vaccine strategies against the Delta variant may be needed. Finally, the use of neutralizing antibody titers to predict efficacy against variants provides an additional tool for public health decision making, as new variants continue to emerge.

Matching journals

The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Vaccine
○ 203 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
12.5%
Similar papers in this journal
2
New England Journal of Medicine
● 52 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
9.6%
Similar papers in this journal
3
Nature Medicine
○ 125 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
6.2%
Similar papers in this journal
4
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
○ 73 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
6.2%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Vaccines
○ 198 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
5.4%
Similar papers in this journal
6
Clinical Infectious Diseases
◐ 235 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
5.4%
7
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific
○ 15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
5.1%
50% of probability mass above
8
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 34%
3.4%
9
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics
○ 25 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.2%
10
eBioMedicine
○ 183 papers in training set
Top 1%
3.2%
11
JAMA Network Open
● 130 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.4%
12
Cell Research
○ 51 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
2.4%
13
Med
○ 39 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
2.1%
14
eClinicalMedicine
○ 77 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
2.1%
15
Journal of Travel Medicine
◐ 18 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.1%
16
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 53%
1.7%
17
The Lancet Microbe
○ 44 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.7%
18
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
19
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.4%
20
PLOS Medicine
● 110 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.3%
21
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
◐ 202 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.1%
22
Vaccine: X
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.1%
23
JAMA
● 18 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.1%
24
Cell Reports Medicine
○ 153 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.0%
25
iScience
○ 1154 papers in training set
Top 37%
0.8%
26
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 60%
0.8%
27
The Lancet Regional Health - Americas
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.8%
28
National Science Review
◐ 21 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
0.8%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.