Predicted responses to selection across the climatic range of a rainforest Drosophila without local adaptation: environmental variation limits trait divergence along ecological gradients

Evolutionary responses to environmental change require heritable variation in traits under selection. Both heritability and selection vary with the environment, and may also covary, so environmental variation can affect evolutionary rates. However, simultaneous estimates of heritability and selection across environmental gradients in the field are rare. We estimated environmental variation in selection on three traits (cold tolerance, heat tolerance, and wing size) of the rainforest fruitfly Drosophila birchii. We transplanted flies in cages along two elevational gradients in north-east Queensland, Australia, and calculated the genetic covariance of trait values with fitness (productivity in cages) at each site. For wing size, we estimated heritability at each site from the correlation between field-reared offspring and their laboratory-reared relatives. We used estimates of selection and heritability to predict selection responses along the elevation gradients, and compared these with trait variation observed in flies sourced from populations at elevational extremes. We found evidence for divergent selection on cold tolerance across elevation at one gradient. Heritability of wing size was highest at gradient ends, and the size of the predicted response to selection on this trait increased with elevation. However, the direction of selection varied, even among adjacent sites, making such selection unlikely to cause divergence of this trait with elevation. None of the traits differed between populations from elevational extremes at either gradient. Variation in the strength and direction of selection over small spatial scales, as well as in time, may explain why predicted responses to selection are often not seen in natural populations.