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Full vaccination suppresses SARS-CoV-2 delta variant mutation frequency

Yeh, T.-Y.; Contreras, G. P.

2021-08-10 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.08.08.21261768 medRxiv
Show abstract

COVID-19 vaccination resistance has become a major challenge to prevent global SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we report that the vaccination coverage rate is inversely correlated to the mutation frequency of the full genome (R2=0.878) and spike gene (R2=0.829) of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants in 16 countries, suggesting that full vaccination against COVID-19, with other mitigation strategies, is critical to suppress emergent mutations. Neutrality analysis of DH and Zengs E tests suggested that directional selection was the major driving force of delta variant evolution. To eliminate the homogenous effects (population expansion, selective sweep etc.), the synonymous (Dsyn) and nonsynonymous (Dnonsyn) polymorphisms of the delta variant spike gene were estimated with Tajimas D statistic. Both D ratio (Dnonsyn/Dsyn) and {Delta}D (Dsyn-Dnonsyn) have positive correlation with the full vaccination rate (R2= 0.723 and 0.505, respectively) in 19 countries, indicating that purifying selection pressure of SARS-CoV-2 spike gene increased as the vaccination coverage rate increased. Taken together, our data suggests that vaccination plays an important role in the purifying selection force of spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants.

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