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COVID-19 in Londrina-PR-Brazil: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization

Cirilo, E. R.; Natti, P. L.; Godoi, P. H.; Lerma, A. A.; Matias, V. P.; Romeiro, N. M.

2021-07-30 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.07.27.21261227 medRxiv
Show abstract

The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with the greatest possible credibility.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.