Analysis of the Second COVID-19 Wave in India and the United Kingdom Using a Birth-Death Model
Viswanath, N. C.
Show abstract
Several countries have witnessed multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 21. The method in [8] is applied here to analyze the COVID-19 waves in India and the UK. For this, a birth-death model is fitted to the active and total cases data for 30 days periods called windows starting from 16th March 2020 up to 10th May 2021. Peculiarities of the parameters suggested a classification of the above windows into three categories: (i) whose fitted parameters predicted a rise in the number of active cases before a fall to zero, (ii) which predicted a decrease, without rising, in the active cases to zero and (iii) which predicted an increase in the active cases until the entire susceptible population gets infected. It follows that some of the type (iii) windows are of the same or lesser concern when compared to some type (i) windows. Further analysis of the type (iii) windows leads to the identification of those which could be indicators of the start of a new wave of the pandemic. The study thus proposes a method for using the present data for identifying pandemic waves in the near future.
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