Changes to household income in a Kenyan informal settlement during COVID-19

More than a billion people live in densely-populated informal settlements worldwide. Crowded living conditions and limited resources may render these populations vulnerable to the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Representative and longitudinal survey data are needed to accurately measure impacts in these populations, but such data are scarce. Using satellite data and spatial sampling to ensure representativeness, we use longitudinal survey data on 1,033 households comprising 3,681 individuals collected pre- and post-pandemic to measure the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic households in six areas of the informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi. The economic impacts are sizable and long-lasting. Household incomes declined at the start of the pandemic by 59% (95% CI: 50% to 69%) and remained 21% (95% CI: 13% to 28%) below the baseline level after six months. Respondents primarily attributed these declines in income to fewer labor market opportunities or lower demand for services, rather than the direct health impacts of the pandemic. The findings raise serious concerns about the welfare consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for residents of informal settlements. Summary boxO_LIResidents of informal settlements may be highly vulnerable to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the longitudinal and representative survey data needed to measure impacts in these populations are scarce. C_LIO_LIWe use an innovative spatial sampling strategy to collect representative survey data from residents in six areas of the informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi. C_LIO_LIRelative to a pre-pandemic baseline, household incomes declined by 59% on average during the first three months of the pandemic. Six months later, incomes were still 21% below baseline. C_LIO_LIHouseholds attributed declines in income primarily to fewer labour market opportunities or lower demand for services (43% of respondents) rather than the direct health impacts of the pandemic (1%). C_LIO_LIThe declines in income we document raise concerns about the welfare of residents of informal settlements during the COVID-19 pandemic. C_LI