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Spatial Accessibility Modeling of Vaccine Deserts as Barriers to Controlling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

Rader, B.; Astley, C. M.; Sewalk, K.; Delamater, P. L.; Cordiano, K.; Wronski, L.; Rivera, J. M.; Hallberg, K.; Pera, M. F.; Cantor, J.; Whaley, C.; Bravata, D.; Brownstein, J. S.

2021-06-12 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.06.09.21252858 medRxiv
Show abstract

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine distribution is at risk of further propagating the inequities of COVID-19, which in the United States (US) has disproportionately impacted the elderly, people of color, and the medically vulnerable. We identify vaccine deserts - US Census tracts with localized, geographic barriers to vaccine-associated herd immunity - using a comprehensive supply database (VaccineFinder) and an empirically parameterized model of spatial access to essential resources. Incorporating high-resolution COVID-19 burden and time-willing-to-travel for vaccination, we show that early (February - March 2021) vaccine allocation disadvantaged rural and medically vulnerable populations. Data-driven vaccine distribution to vaccine deserts may improve immunization in the hesitant and control SARS-CoV-2.

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