Analysis of the Second COVID-19 Wave in India Using a Birth-Death Model
Viswanath, N. C.
Show abstract
India is witnessing the second wave of the COVID-19 disease from the first half of February 2021. The method in [5] is applied here to analyze the second wave in India. We start with fitting a birth-death model to the active and total cases data for the period from 13th to 28th February 2021. This initial dataset is expanded step by step by adding the two future weeks data to it until 14th May 2021. This resulted in six models in total. The efficacy of each model is tested in terms of predictions made for the next two weeks. The infectivity rates are found to be ever-increasing in the case of the five initial models. The infectivity rate for the sixth model, which is based on the data from 13th February to 14th May 2021, shows a decreasing nature with an increase in time. This indicates a decline in the second wave, which may start from 4th June 2021 according to the fitted parameters.
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