Impact of national and regional lockdowns on COVID-19 epidemic waves: Application to the 2020 spring wave in France
Roux, J.; Massonnaud, C.; Colizza, V.; Cauchemez, S.; Crepey, P.
Show abstract
Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increases. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow exponentially with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality and stress on the healthcare system.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Colder and drier winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a regional study of the first epidemic wave in north-west hemisphere countries 93%
- Development and performance of a population-based risk stratification model for COVID-19 92%
- Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Intensive Care Unit Resource Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France 93%
- Rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 δ variant in French regions in June 2021 92%
- Estimating the effect of mobility on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the first and second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland: a population-based study 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland 91%
- Evolution of COVID-19 mortality over time: results from the Swiss hospital surveillance system (CH-SUR) 91%
- Data driven inference of the reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries 90%
Similar papers in this journal
- Detecting COVID-19 infection hotspots in England using large-scale self-reported data from a mobile application: a prospective, observational study 89%
- Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England during April to September 2020: Results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey 89%
- The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study 88%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.