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Modelling COVID-19 evolution in Italy with an augmented SIRD model using open data

Nardelli, V.; Arbia, G.; Palladino, A.; Atzeni, L. G.

2021-04-20 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.04.14.21255500
Show abstract

We propose an augmented version of the traditional SIRD epidemic model and we estimate its parameters using the SaRs-Cov-2 Italian open-data. The models parameters are estimated partly using numerical optimization and partly with ABC. Our estimation procedure provides a good fit to real data.

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