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Forecast of the covid19 epidemic in France

Pottier, L.

2021-04-20 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.04.13.21255418
Show abstract

With a mathematical method based on linear algebra, from open access data (data.gouv.fr, google, apple) we produce forecasts for the number of patients in intensive care in France with an average error of 4% at 7 days, 7% at 14 days, 8% at 21 days, 10% at one month, 17% at 2 months, and 31% at 3 months. For the other epidemic indicators, the error is on average 6% at 7 days and 25% at 2 months.

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