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Quarantine, relaxation and mutation explaining the CoViD-19 epidemic in Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

Yang, H. M.; Lombardi Junior, L. P. P.; Castro, F. F. M.; Yang, A. C.

2021-04-15 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.04.12.21255325 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe continuous SARS-CoV-2 transmission in several countries could contribute to the mutations appearance. The circulation of more virulent variants may increase the number of severe CoViD-19 needing hospital care and fatalities hugely. MethodsThe partial quarantine in Sao Paulo State and further relaxation associated with the mutations are explained by a mathematical model based on the CoViD-19 natural history encompassing the age-dependent fatality. The model parameters were fitted considering the observed data from Sao Paulo State. ResultsThe partial quarantine was explained by the less virulent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relaxation alone could not explain the epidemic observed in Sao Paulo State. However, more virulent variants plus the transmission among isolated individuals explained the increased CoViD-19 fatalities. ConclusionsThe model described the CoViD-19 epidemic in Sao Paulo State by considering the partial quarantine, relaxation and mutations. The model provided a potential epidemiological scenario in the absence of mass vaccination.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.