Spatiotemporal patterns in Golden-cheeked Warbler breeding habitat quality and quantity

The Golden-cheeked Warbler, Setophaga chrysoparia, is a migratory songbird listed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act that breeds exclusively in central Texas and is heavily impacted by habitat conversion. The species relies on mixed Ashe-juniper and oak woodlands for nest-building and shelter during spring and early summer months. Using land cover data spanning the last 25 years, we conduct a geospatial analysis to quantify changes and\ identify shifts in breeding habitat quantity and quality. Since 1985, 13% of all forests within the warblers breeding range were disturbed, with greater incidences near San Antonio (32%) and Austin (24%) metropolitan areas. Additionally, data show a 45% decrease in high-quality habitat (i.e., intact mixed or evergreen core forests) and a decrease in patch size. Habitats within protected areas see a less sharp decline in habitat quality and large increases in warbler sightings, but these only represent 10% of all highest-quality habitat in the breeding range. Drastic declines in habitat quality suggest that generalized metrics of conversion may underestimate true habitat loss as degradation may impact the ecological viability of remaining forests for warbler nesting. Further evidence suggests that the few protected areas within the Texas range continue to play a significant role in warbler breeding. This information will assist researchers and managers prioritizing conservation action and will inform upcoming species status determinations.