A quantitative landscape of cell fate transitions identifies principles of cellular decision-making

Fate decisions in developing tissues involve cells transitioning between a set of discrete cell states, each defined by a distinct gene expression profile. Geometric models, often referred to as Waddington landscapes, in which developmental paths are given by the gradient and cell states by the minima of the model, are an appealing way to describe differentiation dynamics and developmental decisions. To construct and validate accurate dynamical landscapes, quantitative methods based on experimental data are necessary. To this end we took advantage of the differentiation of neural and mesodermal cells from pluripotent mouse embryonic stem cells exposed to different combinations and durations of signalling factors. We developed a principled statistical approach using flow cytometry data to quantify differentiating cell states. Then, using a framework based on Catastrophe Theory and approximate Bayesian computation, we constructed the corresponding dynamical landscape. The result was a quantitative model that accurately predicted the proportions of neural and mesodermal cells differentiating in response to specific signalling regimes. Analysis of the geometry of the landscape revealed two distinct ways in which cells make a binary choice between one of two fates. We discuss the biological relevance of these mechanisms and suggest that they represent general archetypal designs for developmental decisions. Taken together, the approach we describe is broadly applicable for the quantitative analysis of differentiation dynamics and for determining the logic of developmental cell fate decisions.