Drivers of Rift Valley fever virus persistence and the impact of control measures in a spatially heterogeneous landscape: the case of the Comoros archipelago, 2004-2015

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the many zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fevers present in Africa. The ability of the pathogen to persist in multiple geographically distinct regions has raised concerns about its potential for spread to and persistence within currently disease-free areas. However, the mechanisms for which RVF virus persistence occurs at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. Here, we developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago and fitted this model in a Bayesian framework to surveillance data conducted in livestock across those islands between 2004 and 2015. In doing so, we estimated the importance of island-specific environmental factors and animal movements between those islands on the persistence of RVF virus in the archipelago, and we further tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden. We demonstrated that the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission over 10 years after assuming only one introduction event during early 2007. Movement restrictions were only useful to control the disease in Anjouan and Mayotte, as Grande Comore and Moheli were able to self-sustain RVF viral persistence, probably due to local environmental conditions that are more favourable for vectors. We also evidenced that repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance in Grande Comore and Moheli. Strengthened longterm and coordinated surveillance would enable the detection of viral re-emergence and evaluation of different relevant vaccination programmes.