Environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 transmission in England, October to December 2020
Smith, T. P.; Dorigatti, I.; Mishra, S.; Volz, E.; Walker, P. G. T.; Ragonnet-Cronin, M.; Tristem, M.; Pearse, W. D.
Show abstract
Previous work has shown that environment affects SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it is unclear whether emerging strains show similar responses. Here we show that, like other SARS-CoV-2 strains, lineage B.1.1.7 spread with greater transmission in colder and more densely populated parts of England. However, we also find evidence of B.1.1.7 having a transmission advantage at warmer temperatures compared to other strains. This implies that spring and summer conditions are unlikely to slow B.1.1.7s invasion in Europe and across the Northern hemisphere - an important consideration for public health interventions.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.