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Environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 transmission in England, October to December 2020

Smith, T. P.; Dorigatti, I.; Mishra, S.; Volz, E.; Walker, P. G. T.; Ragonnet-Cronin, M.; Tristem, M.; Pearse, W. D.

2021-03-12 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.03.09.21253242 medRxiv
Show abstract

Previous work has shown that environment affects SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it is unclear whether emerging strains show similar responses. Here we show that, like other SARS-CoV-2 strains, lineage B.1.1.7 spread with greater transmission in colder and more densely populated parts of England. However, we also find evidence of B.1.1.7 having a transmission advantage at warmer temperatures compared to other strains. This implies that spring and summer conditions are unlikely to slow B.1.1.7s invasion in Europe and across the Northern hemisphere - an important consideration for public health interventions.

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