Universal Rule for Covid 19 and Herd Immunity in the US
Kuriyan, J.
Show abstract
A new Universal rule for Covid 19 data is derived in this paper using the SIR model. It relates infection and removal rates and is validated by the global Covid 19 data. Over 186,000 data points, from 190 countries and the states of the US, for the period April 1 to December 12, 2020 - fall on a single line, as the Universal rule predicts, transcending geography, ethnicity and race. The Universal rule requires that Herd immunity begin when just 25% of the population is vaccinated. With the anticipated 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of the Biden administration, Herd immunity may be imminent in the US. The Universal rule promotes a temporary stasis with continuing infections and hospitalizations and becomes a barrier to runaway infections, making it practically impossible to reach Herd immunity, as Sweden discovered. Reduced infected population seems to be a third option to stifle the epidemic - a little known accomplishment, first by North Dakota and subsequently by twelve other U.S. states, including South Dakota.
Matching journals
The top 8 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Denmark, February through October 2020: Nature of the past epidemic and how it may develop in the future 97%
- A note on variable susceptibility, the herd-immunity threshold and modeling of infectious diseases 97%
- Adding a reaction-restoration type transmission rate dynamic law to the basic SEIR COVID-19 model 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Post-pandemic modeling of COVID-19: Waning immunity determines recurrence frequency 97%
- Lockdown Measures and their Impact on Single- and Two-age-structured Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico 96%
- A simple model for how the risk of pandemics from different virus families depends on viral and human traits 96%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- The relationship between controllability, optimal testing resource allocation, and incubation-latent period mismatch as revealed by COVID-19 96%
- Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures? 96%
- Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa Fever: a mathematical modeling approach 96%
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.