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A Nonlinear Observer to Estimate the Effective Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases

Hasan, A.

2021-03-03 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.03.02.21252730
Show abstract

In this paper, we design a Nonlinear Observer (NLO) to estimate the effective reproduction number ([R]t) of infectious diseases. The NLO is designed from a discrete-time augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. The observer gain is obtained by solving a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The method is used to estimate[R] t in Jakarta using epidemiological data during COVID-19 pandemic. If the observer gain is tuned properly, this approach produces similar result compared to existing approach such as Extended Kalman filter (EKF).

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