Non-Congruent SARS-CoV-2 Waves in England
Brookes, A. J.; Pollock, A.; Dorling, D.
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Examination of the chronology, location and size of waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection across England could shed light on the inter-play between the 1st and the 2nd Waves. From mid-October onwards such an analysis becomes increasingly difficult due to the emergence of a new strain (VOC-202012/01) and in light of the differential implementation of lockdown measures and tiers. Therefore, we sought to examine trends and correlations in virus prevalence and covid-related deaths spanning the start of the UK pandemic in March 2020 through to early November 2020 - i.e., including the first growth period of the 2nd Wave. We found striking regional relationships between the 1st and the 2nd Wave that are difficult to explain other than by involving some role for changing levels of immunity in the population affecting the progression of the pandemic.
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