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Optimal piecewise constant vaccination and lockdown policies for COVID-19

Salcedo-Varea, G. A.; Penunuri, F.; Gonzalez-Sanchez, D.; Diaz-Infante, S.

2021-01-15 epidemiology
10.1101/2021.01.13.21249773 medRxiv
Show abstract

We formulate a controlled system of ordinary differential equations, with vaccination and lockdown interventions as controls, to simulate the mitigation of COVID-19. The performance of the controls is measured through a cost functional involving vaccination and lockdown costs as well as the burden of COVID19 quantified in DALYs. We calibrate parameters with data from Mexico City and Valle de Mexico. By using differential evolution, we minimize the cost functional subject to the controlled system and find optimal policies that are constant in time intervals of a given size. The main advantage of these policies relies on its practical implementation since the health authority has to make only a finite number of different decisions. Our methodology to find optimal policies is relatively general, allowing changes in the dynamics, the cost functional, or the frequency the policymaker changes actions.

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