Quarantine fatigue thins fat-tailed coronavirus impacts in U.S. cities by making epidemics inevitable
Conte, M. N.; Gordon, M.; Sims, C.
Show abstract
We use detailed location data to show that contacts between individuals in most U.S. cities and counties are fat tailed, suggesting that the fat tails documented in a small number of superspreading clusters are widespread. We integrate these results into a stochastic compartmental model to show that COVID-19 cases were also fat tailed for many U.S. cities for several weeks in the spring and summer. Due to epidemiological thresholds, fat-tailed cases would have been more prevalent if not for the gradual increase in contact rates throughout the summer that made outbreaks more certain.
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