COVID-19 Pandemics: How Far Are We From Herd Immunity?
HERNANDEZ-SUAREZ, C. M.; MURILLO-ZAMORA, E.; ESPINOZA-GOMEZ, F.
Show abstract
Objectivesto estimate the current number of total infections in a region in order to measure the progress of the epidemic with the purpose of reopening activities and planning the deployment of vaccines. Study designWe recovered estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) and the Infection Fatality Risk (IFR) as well as the number of confirmed cases and deaths in several countries. Methodsthis works presents an expression to estimate the number of remaining susceptible in a population using the observed number of SARS-CoV-2 related deaths and current estimates of R0 and IFR. Resultsthe epidemic will infect most of the population causing 2.5 deaths per thousand inhabitants on average, and herd immunity will be achieved when the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants is close to two. This work introduces an expression to provide estimates of the number of remaining susceptible in a region using the reported number of deaths. Conclusionsany region with fewer than 2.5 deaths per thousand individuals will continue accumulating deaths until this average is achieved, and the infection rate will exceed the removal rate until the number of deaths is about two deaths per thousand, when herd immunity is reached. Waves may occur in any region where the number of deaths is below the herd immunity level.
Matching journals
The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Trajectories of COVID-19: a longitudinal analysis of many nations and subnational regions 97%
- Modeling the effect of vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: The rate of vaccination, and not only the vaccination coverage, is a determinant for containing COVID-19 in urban areas 97%
- Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain 96%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Model Based Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Level in Austria and Consequences for Herd Immunity Effects 97%
- Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives 96%
- Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic 96%
- The trade-off between mobility and vaccination for COVID-19 control: a metapopulation modeling approach 96%
- Modeling COVID-19 outbreaks in United States with distinct testing, lockdown speed and fatigue rates 95%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.