The Potential for SARS-CoV-2 to Evade Both Natural and Vaccine-induced Immunity

SARS-CoV-2 attaches to the surface of susceptible cells through extensive interactions between the receptor binding domain (RBD) of its spike protein and angiotensin converting enzyme type 2 (ACE2) anchored in cell membranes. To investigate whether naturally occurring mutations in the spike protein are able to prevent antibody binding, yet while maintaining the ability to bind ACE2 and viral infectivity, mutations in the spike protein identified in cases of human infection were mapped to the crystallographically-determined interfaces between the spike protein and ACE2 (PDB entry 6M0J), antibody CC12.1 (PDB entry 6XC2), and antibody P2B-2F6 (PDB entry 7BWJ). Both antibody binding interfaces partially overlap with the ACE2 binding interface. Among 16 mutations that map to the RBD:CC12.1 interface, 11 are likely to disrupt CC12.1 binding but not ACE2 binding. Among 12 mutations that map to the RBD:P2B-2F6 interface, 8 are likely to disrupt P2B-2F6 binding but not ACE2 binding. As expected, none of the mutations observed to date appear likely to disrupt the RBD:ACE2 interface. We conclude that SARS-CoV-2 with mutated forms of the spike protein may retain the ability to bind ACE2 while evading recognition by antibodies that arise in response to the original wild-type form of the spike protein. It seems likely that immune evasion will be possible regardless of whether the spike protein was encountered in the form of infectious virus, or as the immunogen in a vaccine. Therefore, it also seems likely that reinfection with a variant strain of SARS-CoV-2 may occur among people who recover from Covid-19, and that vaccines with the ability to generate antibodies against multiple variant forms of the spike protein will be necessary to protect against variant forms of SARS-CoV-2 that are already circulating in the human population.