Plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Far East Russia covering the last 28 ka reveals different assembly rules in cold and warm climates

Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic under a warming climate. The related impact on plant diversity is not well understood because we have only limited knowledge about plant assembly rules and because of a lack of time-series of plant diversity. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding using the plant-specific g and h primers of the trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years. Our results show that forb-dominated steppe-tundra and Saliceae-rich dwarf-shrub tundra communities dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period between 14 and 0 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the period of densest vegetation and likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka. Overall, we discovered the highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-10 ka: both periods are characterised by low shrub abundance. The richest communities during the cold pre-14 ka period were phylogenetically clustered, which probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation under limited resources. In contrast, the richest post-14 ka community was phylogenetically overdispersed, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Despite differences in timescale, some of our evidence can be relevant to arctic plant diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. In the long-term, ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community but will also cause reduced plant taxonomic richness; however, richness may overshoot in the short-term.