Misalignment of selection, plasticity, and among-individual variation: A test of theoretical predictions with Peromyscus maniculatus.

Genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity are predicted to align with selection surfaces, a prediction that has rarely been empirically tested. Understanding the relationship between sources of phenotypic variation, i.e. genetic variation and plasticity, with selection surfaces improves our ability to predict a populations ability to adapt to a changing environment and our understanding of how selection has shaped phenotypes. Here, we estimated the (co)variances among three different behaviors (activity, aggression, and anti-predator response) in a natural population of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). Using multi-response generalized mixed effects models, we divided the phenotypic covariance matrix into among- and within-individual matrices. The among-individual covariances includes genetic and permanent environmental covariances (e.g. developmental plasticity) and is predicted to align with selection. Simultaneously, we estimated the within-individual (co)variances, which include reversible phenotypic plasticity. To determine whether genetic variation, plasticity and selection align in multivariate space we calculated the dimensions containing the greatest among-individual variation and the dimension in which most plasticity was expressed (i.e. the dominant eigenvector for the among- and within-individual covariance matrices respectively). We estimated selection coefficients based on survival estimates from a mark-recapture model. Alignment between the dominant eigenvectors of behavioural variation and the selection gradient was estimated by calculating the angle between them, with an angle of 0 indicating perfect alignment. The angle between vectors ranged from 68{degrees} to 89{degrees}, indicating that genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity, and selection are misaligned in this population. This misalignment could be due to the behaviors being close to their fitness optima, which is supported by low evolvabilities, or because of low selection pressure on these behaviors.