Covid-19 Will Reduce US Life Expectancy at Birth by More Than One Year in 2020
Heuveline, P.
Show abstract
On December 3rd, 2020, the cumulative number of U.S. Covid-19 deaths tallied by Johns Hopkins University (JHU) online dashboard reached 275,000, surpassing the number at which life table calculations show Covid-19 mortality will lower the U.S. life expectancy at birth (LEB) for 2020 by one full year. Such an impact on the U.S. LEB is unprecedented since the end of World War II. With additional deaths by the year end, the reduction in 2020 LEB induced by Covid-19 deaths will inexorably exceed one year. Factoring the expected continuation of secular gains against other causes of mortality, the U.S. LEB should still drop by more than a full year between 2019 and 2020. By comparison, the opioid-overdose crisis led to a decline in U.S. LEB averaging .1 year annually, from 78.9 years in 2014 to 78.6 years in 2017. At its peak, the HIV epidemic reduced the U.S. LEB by .3 year in a single year, from 75.8 years in 1992 to 75.5 years in 1993. As of now, the US LEB is expected to fall back to the level it first reached in 2010. In other words, the impact of Covid-19 on U.S. mortality can be expected to cancel a decade of gains against all other causes of mortality combined.
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