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CovidRiskCalc: An online app to calculate the risk of COVID infection in a gathering

Artzrouni, M.

2020-12-22 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.12.01.20241646 medRxiv
Show abstract

CovidRiskCalc is an evidence based online app which calculates the risk of COVID-19 infection for a person coming into contact during a specific event/gathering with a group of individuals, some of whom may be infected (available at CovidRiskCalc.eu). The user is helped in providing a rough estimate of the COVID-19 prevalence rate in the group. She also inputs the size of the group, the number (and duration) of her contacts and the level of precautions (masks, social distancing, etc.). The app calculates the users risk of transmission in a single infected contact; her probability of infection during the entire event and the number of new infections within the group. Two numerical examples are given. The tool, designed for both professionals and the general public, thus quantifies the risks of infection in special populations (social gatherings, prisons, etc.), but also in general ones (stores, stadiums, etc.).

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
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2.5%
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Top 2%
2.2%
9
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◐ 1204 papers in training set
Top 6%
2.0%
50% of probability mass above
10
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● 601 papers in training set
Top 9%
1.8%
11
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Top 2%
1.8%
12
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1.7%
13
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1.5%
14
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Top 1%
1.5%
15
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Top 0.7%
1.2%
16
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Top 4%
1.2%
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Top 0.1%
1.2%
20
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Top 8%
1.1%
21
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● 12 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.1%
22
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Top 0.1%
1.1%
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1.0%
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◐ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
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● 130 papers in training set
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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.