Quaternary climate change explains global patterns of tree beta-diversity

Both historical and contemporary environmental conditions determine present biodiversity patterns, but their relative importance is not well understood. One way to disentangle their relative effects is to assess how different dimensions of beta-diversity relate to past climatic changes, i.e., taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional compositional dissimilarity, and their components generated by replacement of species, lineages and traits (turnover) and richness changes (nestedness). Here, we quantify global patterns of each of these aspects of beta-diversity among neighboring sites for angiosperm trees using the most extensive global database of tree species-distributions (43,635 species). We found that temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the major influence on both turnover and nestedness components of beta-diversity, with a negative correlation to turnover and a positive correlation to nestedness. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional nestedness was higher than expected from taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature changes since the LGM. This pattern reflects relatively greater losses of phylogenetic and functional diversity in species-poor assemblages, possibly caused by phylogenetically and functionally selective species extinction and recolonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results send a strong warning that rapid anthropogenic climate change is likely to result in a long-lasting phylogenetic and functional compositional simplification, potentially impairing forest ecosystem functioning.