The risk of introducing SARS-CoV-2 to the UK via international travel in August 2020
Taylor, R.; McCarthy, C. A.; Patel, V.; Moir, R.; Kelly, L.; Snary, E.
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International travel poses substantial risks for continued introduction of SARS-CoV-2. As of the 17th August 2020, travellers from 12 of the top 25 countries flying into the UK are required to self-isolate for 14 days. We estimate that 895 (CI: 834-958) infectious travellers arrive in a single week, of which 87% (779, CI: 722-837) originate from countries on the UK quarantine list. We compare alternative measures to the 14 day self-isolation (78.0% effective CI: 74.4-81.6) which could be more feasible long-term. A single RT-PCR taken upon arrival at the airport is 39.6% (CI: 35.2-43.7) effective, or equivalently, it would only detect 2 in 5 infectious passengers. Alternatively, testing four days after arrival is 64.3% (CI: 60.0-68.3) effective whereas a test at the airport plus additional test four days later is 68.9% (CI: 64.9-73.0) effective. Rapidly implementing control measures for travellers from risky countries is vital to protect public health; this methodology can be quickly updated to assess the impact of any further changes to international travel policy or disease occurrence.
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