Back

Universal properties of the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemics

Chrusciel, P. T.; Szybka, S. J.

2020-08-29 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.08.24.20181214 medRxiv
Show abstract

We present evidence for existence of a universal lower bound for the initial growth rate of the epidemic curve of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. This can be used to infer that, on average, an asymptomatic infected individual is infectious during 5.6 {+/-} 0.3 days. We further present evidence of an average time scale of 12 days for halving the number of new cases, or new deaths, during the extinction period of the first phase of the epidemic.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 6%
8.0%
Similar papers in this journal
2
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
● 2444 papers in training set
Top 4%
8.0%
Similar papers in this journal
3
eLife
● 5828 papers in training set
Top 15%
7.3%
Similar papers in this journal
4
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
● 235 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
6.8%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 23%
6.8%
Similar papers in this journal
6
Physical Review E
● 112 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
5.5%
7
Physical Review Research
● 49 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
4.1%
8
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 34%
3.5%
9
PLOS Biology
● 486 papers in training set
Top 1%
3.3%
50% of probability mass above
10
Journal of Theoretical Biology
○ 162 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
3.3%
11
Communications Physics
○ 14 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.3%
12
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 11%
2.7%
13
Mathematical Biosciences
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
2.4%
14
Physical Review X
● 25 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
2.1%
15
Science Advances
● 1243 papers in training set
Top 19%
1.7%
16
Frontiers in Physics
○ 21 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.7%
17
Communications Biology
○ 993 papers in training set
Top 18%
1.3%
18
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.3%
19
PNAS Nexus
◐ 159 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.1%
20
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
21
Nucleic Acids Research
◐ 1281 papers in training set
Top 14%
0.6%
22
PLOS Genetics
● 862 papers in training set
Top 13%
0.6%
23
Biophysical Journal
○ 631 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.6%
24
PRX Life
● 42 papers in training set
Top 1.0%
0.6%
25
Virus Evolution
◐ 155 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.6%
26
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
● 72 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.6%
27
Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA
◐ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
0.6%
28
Cell
○ 431 papers in training set
Top 11%
0.6%
29
Cell Reports
○ 1498 papers in training set
Top 28%
0.6%
30
The American Journal of Human Genetics
○ 234 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.