Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects

Covid-19 infection case predictions (total cases) are made for August through December 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC). A two-parameter model based on social distance index (SDI) and disease transmission efficiency (G) parameters is used to characterize SARS-CoV-2 disease spread. Current lack of coherent and coordinated US policy causes the US to follow a linear infection growth path with a limit cycle behavior that modulates the US between accelerating and decaying infection growth on either side of a linear growth path boundary. Four prediction cases are presented: O_LINo school re-openings; fall season temperature effect C_LIO_LINo school re-openings; no fall season temperature effect C_LIO_LISchool re-openings; fall season temperature effect C_LIO_LISchool re-openings; no fall season temperature effect C_LI Fall outdoor temperatures, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, are predicted to be beneficial for dampening SARS-CoV-2 transmission in States as they pass through "swing season" temperature range of 70F to 50F. Physical re-opening of schools in September are predicted to accelerate infections. States with low current infectious case numbers (eg, NY) are predicted to be minimally impacted while States with high current infectious case numbers (eg, CA and FL) will be significantly impacted by school re-openings. Updated infection predictions will be posted monthly (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec) with adjustments based on actual trends in SDI and G. Assessments related to outdoor temperature impact, school re-openings, and other public gathering re-openings will be discussed in updated reports.