Towards chemical accuracy for alchemical free energy calculations with hybrid physics-based machine learning / molecular mechanics potentials

Alchemical free energy methods with molecular mechanics (MM) force fields are now widely used in the prioritization of small molecules for synthesis in structure-enabled drug discovery projects because of their ability to deliver 1-2 kcal mol-1 accuracy in well-behaved protein-ligand systems. Surpassing this accuracy limit would significantly reduce the number of compounds that must be synthesized to achieve desired potencies and selectivities in drug design campaigns. However, MM force fields pose a challenge to achieving higher accuracy due to their inability to capture the intricate atomic interactions of the physical systems they model. A major limitation is the accuracy with which ligand intramolecular energetics--especially torsions--can be modeled, as poor modeling of torsional profiles and coupling with other valence degrees of freedom can have a significant impact on binding free energies. Here, we demonstrate how a new generation of hybrid machine learning / molecular mechanics (ML/MM) potentials can deliver significant accuracy improvements in modeling protein-ligand binding affinities. Using a nonequilibrium perturbation approach, we can correct a standard, GPU-accelerated MM alchemical free energy calculation in a simple post-processing step to efficiently recover ML/MM free energies and deliver a significant accuracy improvement with small additional computational effort. To demonstrate the utility of ML/MM free energy calculations, we apply this approach to a benchmark system for predicting kinase:inhibitor binding affinities--a congeneric ligand series for non-receptor tyrosine kinase TYK2 (Tyk2)--wherein state-of-the-art MM free energy calculations (with OPLS2.1) achieve inaccuracies of 0.93{+/-}0.12 kcal mol-1 in predicting absolute binding free energies. Applying an ML/MM hybrid potential based on the ANI2x ML model and AMBER14SB/TIP3P with the OpenFF 1.0.0 ("Parsley") small molecule force field as an MM model, we show that it is possible to significantly reduce the error in absolute binding free energies from 0.97 [95% CI: 0.68, 1.21] kcal mol-1 (MM) to 0.47 [95% CI: 0.31, 0.63] kcal mol-1 (ML/MM).