Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19

2020-07-29 epidemiology Title + abstract only

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Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple time-scales. On short time-scales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both time-scales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate ...

Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19

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