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Immuno-epidemiological life-history and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next five years

Saad-Roy, C. M.; Wagner, C. E.; Baker, R. E.; Morris, S. E.; Farrar, J.; Graham, A. L.; Levin, S. A.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

2020-07-16 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.07.15.20154401 medRxiv
Show abstract

Uncertainty in the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 may have implications for future outbreaks. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future Covid-19 cases given different impacts of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2 as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that variations in the immune response to primary SARS-CoV-2 infections and a potential vaccine can lead to dramatically different immunity landscapes and burdens of critically severe cases, ranging from sustained epidemics to near elimination. Our findings illustrate likely complexities in future Covid-19 dynamics, and highlight the importance of immunological characterization be-yond the measurement of active infections for adequately characterizing the immune landscape generated by SARS-CoV-2 infections.

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