Projecting the second outbreaks for global COVID-19 pandemic
Huang, J.; Liu, X.; Zhang, L.; Yang, K.; Chen, Y.; Huang, Z.; Liu, C.; Lian, X.; Wang, D.
Show abstract
COVID-19 is now in an epidemic phase, with a second outbreak likely to appear at any time. The intensity and timing of a second outbreak is a common concern worldwide. In this study, we made scenario projections of the potential second outbreak of COVID-19 using a statistical-epidemiology model, which considers both the impact of seasonal changes in meteorological elements and human social behaviors such as protests and city unblocking. Recent street protests in the United States and other countries are identified as a hidden trigger and amplifier of the second outbreak. The scale and intensity of subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S. cities where the epidemic is under initial control are projected to be much greater than those of the first outbreak. For countries without reported protests, lifting the COVID-19 related restrictions prematurely would accelerate the spread of the disease and place mounting pressure on the local medical system that is already overloaded. We anticipate these projections will support public health planning and policymaking by governments and international organizations.
Matching journals
The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Modeling the effect of vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: The rate of vaccination, and not only the vaccination coverage, is a determinant for containing COVID-19 in urban areas 93%
- Long-term changes in human mobility responses to COVID-19-related information in Japan 92%
- Using mobile phone data to estimate dynamic population changes and improve the understanding of a pandemic: A case study in Andorra 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Intra-county modeling of COVID-19 infection with human mobility: assessing spatial heterogeneity with business traffic, age and race 94%
- Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas 92%
- COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support 92%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.