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The UK Covid-19 lockdown weakened in April and May 2020: implications for the size of the epidemic and for outcomes had lockdown been earlier

2020-07-06 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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The number of active cases in the UK Covid-19 epidemic, the case fatality rate, the susceptible proportion of the population, and how well the lockdown was maintained during April-May 2020 are unknown. These four have a relationship with the shape of the daily mortality curve once one considers the intervals from infection to death or recovery. Without an understanding of this relationship we cannot say that an earlier lockdown would have saved lives. Using a small stochastic model, the lockdown...

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