Predictive model of COVID-19 incidence and socioeconomic description of municipalities in Brazil

Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses that can cause respiratory, gastrointestinal, hepatic, and neurological diseases. In December 2019, a new highly contagious coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China. SARS-CoV-2 causes a potentially lethal human respiratory infection, COVID-19, that is associated with fever and cough and can progress to pneumonia and dyspnea in severe cases. Since the virus emerged, it has spread rapidly, reaching all continents around the world. A previous study has shown that, despite being the best alternative in the current pandemic context, social distancing measures alone may not be sufficient to prevent COVID-19 spread, and the overall impact of the virus is of great concern. The present study aims to describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of 672 cities with cases of COVID-19, as well as to determine a predictive model for the number of cases. We analyzed data from cities with at least 1 reported case of COVID-19 until June 26, 2020. It was observed that cities with confirmed cases of the disease are present in all Brazilian states, affecting 36.5% of the municipalities in Rio de Janeiro State. The inhabitants in cities with reported cases of COVID-19 represent more than 73.1% of the Brazilian population. Stratifying the age groups of the inhabitants and accounting for the percentage of women and men does not affect COVID-19 incidence (confirmed cases/100,000 inhabitants). The demographic density, the MHDI and the per capita income of the municipalities with cases of COVID-19 do not affect disease incidence. In addition, if conditions are maintained, our model predicts 2,358,703 (2,172,930 to 2,544,477) cumulative cases on July 25, 2020.