How Many Lives Has Lockdown Saved in the UK?
Nyman, R. B. E.; Ormerod, P.
Show abstract
We compare the trajectory of deaths (both in hospitals and care homes) on a daily basis in Sweden and England and Wales (which constitute 90 per cent of the UK population) from 11 March to 7 August 2020, the latest date at which the relevant data is available for England and Wales. Deaths in both Sweden and England and Wales peaked on 8 April. The build up to the peak was very similar in both. Given the time lag between infection and death, the lockdown would have had little effect on the peak number of deaths. By the first week of August, the deaths are very similar in both. However, from early May the decline in England and Wales has been much sharper. We estimate that to 7 August, lockdown saved 17,700 lives in England and Wales, or just under 20,000 extrapolating to a UK level.
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