Modelling of the second (and subsequent) waves of the coronavirus epidemic. Spain and Germany as case studies
de Castro, F.
Show abstract
The first wave of the coronavirus pandemic is waning in many countries. Some of them are starting to lift the confinement measures adopted to control it, but there is considerable uncertainty about if it is too soon and it may cause a second wave of the epidemic. To explore this issue, I fitted a SEIR model with time-dependent transmission and mortality rates to data from Spain and Germany as contrasting case studies. The model reached an excellent fit to the data. I then simulated the post-confinement epidemic under several scenarios. The model shows that (in the absence of a vaccine) a second wave is likely inevitable and will arrive soon, and that a strategy of adaptive confinement may be effective to control it. The model also shows that just a few days delay in starting the confinement may have caused and excess of thousands of deaths in Spain.
Matching journals
The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic: impacts of variants, vaccines, and duration of immunity 94%
- The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement 94%
- The Effect of Gender on Covid-19 Infections and Mortality in Germany: Insights From Age- and Sex-Specific Modelling of Contact Rates, Infections, and Deaths 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data 94%
- Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories 93%
- Projection of Healthcare Demand in Germany and Switzerland Urged by Omicron Wave (January-March 2022) 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- How can risk of COVID-19 transmission be minimised in domiciliary care for older people: development, parameterisation and initial results of a simple mathematical model 92%
- Quarantine and the risk of COVID-19 importation 92%
- Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020) 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- Modelling, prediction and design of national COVID-19 lockdowns by stringency and duration 94%
- Does susceptibility to novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection differ by age?: Insights from mathematical modelling 94%
- On the Spread of Coronavirus Infection. A Mechanistic Model to Rate Strategies for Disease Management 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout 93%
- Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: a modelling analysis 93%
- Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation 92%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.