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Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework

2020-06-12 public and global health Title + abstract only
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ObjectivesTo develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics, for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West of England (SW) as an example case. DesignOpen-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. SettingSW a...

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