A burning question: Can natural climate solutions and carbon financing save the lion from extinction?

Lions (Panthera leo) in Africa have lost nearly half their population in just the last two decades, and effective management of the protected areas (PAs) where lions live will cost an estimated USD >$1 B/year in new funding. We explore the potential for launching a fire management and habitat restoration carbon-financing program to help fill this PA management funding gap. We demonstrate how introducing early dry season fire management programs could produce potential carbon revenues (PCR) from either a single carbon-financing method (avoided emissions) or from multiple sequestration methods of USD $59.6-$655.9 M/year (at USD $5/ton) or USD $155.0 M-$1.7 B/year (at USD $13/ton). We highlight variable but significant PCR for PAs with the greatest potential for restoring lion numbers between USD $1.5-$44.4 M per PA. We suggest investing in lion-centric fire management programs to jump-start the United Nations Decade of Ecological Restoration and help preserve African lions across their range. SCIENCE FOR SOCIETYThe United Nations recently launched the Decade of Ecological Restoration in response to planet-wide land degradation. This study analyses the potential for savanna fire management programs to restore fire regimes that can generate new sources of revenue from carbon financing for chronically under-funded protected areas in Africa with lions, as lions are a key indicator of savanna ecosystem health. We estimated the amount of carbon saved by shifting fires that normally burn in the late dry season (and emit more carbon) to the early dry season (that accrue more carbon in the soil and woody vegetation). Based on current carbon market values we found substantial potential to eliminate or significantly reduce the $>1B annual funding gap needed to save the lion from extinction. Given additional benefits for nature and people from new savanna fire programs, we recommend integrated conservation and development projects direct more funding to some of the least developed countries with high biodiversity and support fire management programs in Africa.